Can New Peace Plan Break Old Logjam?

Categories: Israel, Letters From Leadership, Letters from the Leadership
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On the same day that I first learned about the new peace plan of Knesset Member Amir Peretz (Sunday, Dec. 6), I attended a J Street event in Brooklyn (co-sponsored by Ameinu, among others) featuring a conversation between retired IDF brigadier general Udi Dekel and Forward Columnist JJ Goldberg.  They are worth discussing in tandem, as both spotlight the thinking of mainstream Israelis.

peretz_amir

Amir Peretz

Amir Peretz has served as mayor of Sderot, head of the Histadrut trade union confederation, and was the Labor party’s leader and standard bearer in the 2006 elections. More recently, having returned to the Knesset on Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah list, he is now a leading MK in Hatnuah’s alliance with the Labor party known in English as the Zionist Union.  I will return to the Peretz peace plan after discussing the event with Gen. Dekel.

Udi Dekel has had a distinguished career in the Israel Defense Forces, beginning in the air force.  He rose to head the IDF’s Planning Directorate and is currently deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies, an academic think-tank.  Before he retired from the military, he worked closely with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s negotiating team during the Annapolis round of negotiations with Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas, in 2007 -08, which included “300” high-level discussions.

While not a peace activist, Gen. Dekel does exemplify the moderately dovish majority of Israel’s security-defense establishment which sees the vital need for Israel to forge a two-state agreement with the Palestinians.  JJ Goldberg has frequently noted in his writings and public appearances the widening gap between Israel’s security professionals and the Netanyahu government’s policies.

Still, speaking from a mainstream Israeli perspective, Dekel expressed some frustration that Abbas has not been more flexible in negotiations, saying neither “yes or no” to Olmert’s proposal in 2008 and to John Kerry’s effort to engineer at least an interim agreement in 2014.  Dekel states that Olmert was offering 97% of the West Bank, including a territorial exchange, while the Palestinians were insisting on 100%.  (JJ pointed out that the Palestinians feel justified in this position by the fact that they have already conceded 78% of the British Mandate territory, and are striving to establish their state on only 22% — the part that the Israelis want to further erode.)

But Dekel did acknowledge a certain conundrum in that the Palestinians fear that what is created as an interim agreement will become permanent, while the Israelis fear that a so-called permanent agreement will become interim.  Hence, the parties become bogged down under the challenging proposition that “nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed.”

Dekel also mentioned his effort to persuade Abbas to acknowledge Israel as a “Jewish state” under the principle of “two states for two peoples.” According to Dekel, Abbas replied that if he endorsed this formula, he’d be giving up on any claim to a right of return for displaced Palestinians.  Nonetheless, Abbas was willing to compromise on this right in his negotiations with Olmert, with its implementation being restricted to “80,000” Palestinians allowed to “return” to sovereign Israel.  (Olmert reportedly was offering a token admission to a much lower number, perhaps 5,000.)

As for now, Dekel advocates that Israel withdraw from 80% of the West Bank, basically to the large settlement blocs closest to Green Line Israel, and that there be a freeze on construction for all settlements beyond those lines.  At the same time, he sees a need for Israel to retain a security presence along the Jordan River Valley (although “not forever”), and understands that some in Israel’s security establishment believe that security can be adequately maintained along this eastern boundary by technological means.  And he invokes the need for moderate Arab states in the region to apply friendly pressure to both sides toward a reasonable compromise agreement.

Amir Peretz’s plan also involves a settlement freeze in all of the West Bank beyond the settlement blocs, and he advocates that Israel seek to annex these blocs in ensuing negotiations.  But in most ways, this is not an advance for the Palestinians over Olmert’s proposals, which they neither approved nor entirely rejected.

My understanding is that the Palestinians were unhappy with Olmert’s plan to annex both the Ariel bloc and Maaleh Adumim, but might have been okay with Israel withdrawing from Ariel and allowing a tunnel under E-1 (the highway to Maaleh Adumim) to facilitate Palestinian access north and south of Maaleh Adumim.

Olmert was more generous than Peretz in Jerusalem, where I believe that Olmert did not insist on Israeli sovereignty over the Holy Basin.  And, unlike Peretz, Olmert did not rule out any “return” of Palestinians to sovereign Israel.  Although still wide apart on a final number, Olmert and Abbas seemed to be working toward a compromise figure.

Before totally sniping away at the Peretz plan, however, it needs to be evaluated as a beginning position, and not a take-it-or-leave-it proposition; and it is a distinct advance over where the Palestinians are at this moment.  If the Zionist Union adopts this in some way, perhaps in combination with MK Hilik Bar’s recent initiative, the opposition would finally offer the Israeli people an alternative to the government’s current stance of creeping annexationism in the guise of “managing the conflict.”

About Ralph Seliger

A veteran editor, freelance writer and blogger, I edited the print magazine, "Israel Horizons," from 2003 until 2011; and I've blogged for and edited the Meretz USA and now Partners for Progressive Israel Blog since its inception in 2006 (although I no longer edit the PPI Blog). I've been an active supporter of the Zionist peace camp since 1982. Other print and online platforms where I've been published include: The Forward, The Daily Beast, History News Network, Tikkun, In These Times, Jewish Week, New Jersey Jewish News, Jewish Currents, Huffington Post, and Dissent.
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245 Responses to Can New Peace Plan Break Old Logjam?

  1. Alan J Weisbard, Professor Emeritus, University of Wisconsin says:

    So Ralph, how do we think about the impact of changing (and worsening) circumstances on what constitutes a potentially workable deal? As the occupation becomes more entrenched and the Israeli program of settlement expands, do terms that were unacceptable to the Palestinians previously become more attractive? Is it clear that an Israeli proposal making more concessions than Olmert was prepared to offer will be necessary to win Palestinian acceptance? It is certainly very hard to imagine that the current Israeli government–and perhaps the Israeli public– will go much beyond the Olmert offer, or even accept those terms if, for example, Abbas now tried to say yes to the Olmert terms.
    Is there any reason to believe the Palestinians are in any hurry to make an end-of-conflict deal including the establishment of a Palestinian State, or do they think time favors them, and patienc will be rewarded in, say, a one state arrangement with a majority Palestinian population?

  2. Herb Lewis says:

    Alan,

    If the Palestinians “think time favors them, and patienc will be rewarded in, say, a one state arrangement with a majority Palestinian population” they are engaged in more of a fantasy than usual. Is it realistic to think that the Israelis, with overwhelming force, militarily, technologically, and economically, will let themselves be swamped and outvoted by the Palestinians? Does it seem possible that they will say–“OK, outvote us in fair and equal elections”? Is there anything in the history of this conflict that suggests such a resolution is possible?

    On the contrary, it appears that the Palestinians are making the same mistake as always: Turn down the chance for a deal (1947, 1967, 2000) and hope for a miracle that will restore them to 1947–or 1916–or 1880.

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  23. 一位张老师作为单身男老师代表,上台讲起了自己写下这些要求的原因。“你看嘛,别看我们写了那么多,什么贤惠、心理善良、善解人意,归根到底其实只有一句话,请不要家暴!”台下顿时笑成一团,他又继续解释说,“看嘛,成都男人都是耙耳朵,比较瘦弱,在家里容易遭到家暴,找个温柔的老婆会少受点罪,这也是我们要求吃少点的原因,吃少点就没力气,可能打不过我们。”留学培训“深坑”多 万元不知何处去–江西频道–人民网 随着高考和暑期的日益临近,留学培训市场的旺季也即将到来。虽然随着瓜分市场者的逐年递增,留学培训市场早已不像过去那样“本薄利厚”,但迅猛增长的出国留学人数,使之仍然成为一块众人争抢的“肥肉”。同时,除了代办留学手续的各类中介机构是出了名的猫腻多、暴利外,相关的留学语言培训也是低调的敛财高手,且花样不断。 连日来,记者通过对本市几大留学培训机构的走访调查,发现从课程选择到合同签订、从教师配备到师生交流都暗藏“玄机”,作为教育软实力的师资更是成为各大机构盈利的制胜法宝。为此,记者专门请到业内人士,为学生与家长揭开留学培训行业的面纱,看看这个领域究竟有多少“坑”?又都被“坑”在了哪里?测算完成一个课程到底需要多少成本?学生又多花了哪些费用?以期为学生与家长进行提示,使之能巧妙避开培训机构设置的消费陷阱,获得最适合自己的学习效果。 留学培训机构都预备了哪些“坑”? 陷阱 选课签约 全靠忽悠 测试“虚晃一枪” 说你能上就能上 在报读课程之前,培训机构通常会为学生进行英语水平测试,评估学生是否具备上课的语言基础及适合上什么层级的课程。但记者调查发现,在不少培训机构,这项测试制度已经形同虚设,“测试结果放水”更是家常便饭,更有课程顾问跟学生“随便聊聊”,就能定课程层级。 记者首先来到位于河西区小白楼附近的一家培训机构,当记者表明想要咨询雅思课程时,工作人员便热情地把记者请进一间小屋,很快一位自称“牛老师”的课程顾问便来到记者面前。记者告诉牛老师,自己大学毕业刚刚一年,现在想去英国深造,主修市场营销方向,英语六级480分。在大致了解了记者的目标需求与语言水平后,牛老师建议记者报读雅思6分直通班,并需要做一个测试来确定英语水平。记者随即表示好久没碰英语了,可不可不做题时,牛老师便“爽快”地同意了。 如果说这位牛老师还是走了“测试流程”,那么记者随后去到的培训机构则是“连流程都省了”。这家培训机构同样位于小白楼商区,写字楼虽略显破旧,但租下整层的办公室,依旧说明这是一家颇具规模的培训机构。在了解到记者的需求后,课程顾问直接为记者推荐起课程来,“你的英语基础不错,但是放下的时间太长了,需要帮你进入状态,可以报一个全程班。你这个水平雅思考6分肯定没问题,或者直接报6.5分班,省得再去刷成绩……”当记者提出,是否需要做英语水平测试时,这位课程顾问则略有深意地告诉记者,“其实那个都是骗人的,判卷都很松,考不考没区别,不用麻烦了。” 不到一下午的时间,在毫不清楚记者的实际英语水平下,记者的“雅思预期成绩”就从6分升到了6.5分。 “保分”就是无限续课 退费没门 在众多培训机构的大力宣传下,相信大家对“保过班”的概念并不陌生。所谓“保分”,就是保证达到申请学校所要求的语言成绩。虽然在报课的时候,课程顾问都会“信誓旦旦”表示上过课的学生基本都能考到满意的分数,合同里也会有保证达到成绩的条款,但最后达不到成绩的结果就是无限续课,想退费很难。 一位曾就职于某培训机构的工作人员告诉记者,有不少的雅思学生,考了四、五次的分数都达不到签约分数,通常都差0.5分,学生只能继续上下去。“因为没有人是为了来退费而上课考试的,就算在这里退费了,还要去其他地方重新报课,一般学生不会这么选择。”这位工作人员说,最后的结果要么是考到分数皆大欢喜,要么是学生上腻了自己放弃。 在亲身咨询中记者也发现,牛老师虽然给记者介绍得很详细,但在记者问及如果达不到直通班效果怎么办时,牛老师用了“那也没关系,可以免费再上,既巩固了知识,还拉低了每节课的成本。”来回答记者的提问。 陷阱 教师搭配 满是“学问” 用“便宜”教师“段子手”填满课时 如果说课程顾问的策略是销售技巧,那么课程教师的搭配就是培训机构的一项“赚钱必杀技”。 在一些直通套餐课程里,通常包括“基础课、强化课和点题课”,虽然以套餐的形式出现,有一定价格优惠,但实际上学生多付了许多费用。因为在很多套餐基础课里,都是由兼职教师甚至学生教师“代班”完成,多的时候占到总课时的1 3。 一位曾“受聘”于某培训机构的小倪告诉记者,自己实则是这所培训机构的学生,已经收到了国外学校录取通知,因为等着出国的那段时间没事做,被老师抓来应急。“基础课就是照教材念,只要会点英语的都可以教。”小倪还告诉记者,当时像她一样去顶替的学生一共有3个,公司每小时付给他们50元钱,相比于正式教师每小时120元的课时费,公司省下不少成本。 而在另外一些学校,“出彩”的不是学生教师而是“段子手”。现就职于某大型培训机构的一位老师告诉记者,他们学校的“段子”都是经过培训的,需要跟教学内容一样写在教案里进行演练,最多的时候,一节课有一半的时间在讲段子。“说是学校特色,活跃课堂气氛,其实拉长课时的作用也不小。” 全职不够兼职凑 人人都是“名师” 每个培训机构都会有几个“压场”的名师,但为了追求广告效应,在很多只有二十几位教师的培训机构,竟自称拥有多达10余位的“名师”。记者曾在一家位于南开区海光寺附近的培训机构内看到,满满一墙的名师榜,每一位都“战功卓略”,不是托福考到110,就是雅思过了8分。 但在很多培训机构人员的观念里,“这也是没办法的事”。一位专门负责学校教务工作、主管排课的业内人士告诉记者,在培训旺季里,虽然学生很多,教师人手本来是够的,但往往每个学生都点名要上名师的课,名师数量有限,人的精力也是有限的,所以只能多“制造”几位名师供学生选择。 陷阱3 师生互动猫腻多 被“特别关照”者实为“续费”重点对象 在一般情况下,学生及家长潜意识里都希望得到老师更多的关注,殊不知,这样的心理反被一些心术不正的教师及机构视为商机,成为“待宰的羔羊”。 “学生教师”小倪告诉记者,开始带课后,师傅就教她多留心班里英语基础较差但家庭条件较好的学生,为以后让他们续费VIP课程作准备。“师傅说要对他们表现出足够的耐心,可以多用”有进步””学习热情保持下去一定能考出高分”等话语鼓励他们,让他们觉得如果跟着你学,一定能出成绩。”小倪说,后来她照着师傅的方法尝试,确实有因此续费的学生,让她在产生成就感的同时也夹杂着不少罪恶感,“家长听孩子说想学1对1课程就去续课,根本不知道我们耍的手段,某种程度上就是在骗学生。” 不报“全套通关”课程 不受重视 现在很多机构都是留学手续、语言培训一起做,因此也会推出一些“全套通关”项目。相比万元的培训价格,近十万元的“全套通关”才是机构心中的大客户,自然会多出许多优待。 报读了某留学机构托福课程的小李告诉记者,自己秋季开学才大三,但在大二的时候就报读了托福课程,想给自己充足的备考时间,一共6个人的班课,老师对其中2个签了“全套通关”的学生格外关照,“有时候课上老师经常会问他们是否跟得上、有没有什么不明白的地方,对我们其他人的关注很少。”小李说,同样是来上课的,单课而言大家交的钱一样,但待遇却不同,让他很难接受,“其实如果他们教得好,我的留学中介手续也会找他们做的,但现在肯定不会了。” 提高利润全靠缩减课时费成本 语言培训课程最大的成本是教师课时费,所以,在一些培训机构里,缩减课时费成本以提高利润点,成为常用的手段。 基础课教师普遍“三低” 学历低、能力低、工资低 在如今的很多留学语言课程里,都是有基础课甚至督导课的,而这部分看似照本宣科没什么技术含量的课程实则是很重要的,它是在为学生后续的学习打基础。但对以盈利为目的的培训机构来说,这种课程却成为他们缩减成本的制胜点。 记者在对本市几家培训机构及相关从业人员的走访中发现,目前基础课教师普遍呈现“三低”:即学历低、能力低、工资低。 据不完全统计,从业教师中只有10%左右人员为硕士及以上学历,80%以上无出国留学经历,也无留学语言课程培训经验,甚至非外语类专业毕业的也不在少数。 而在这些教师中,虽然大部分都是经常“刷”语言成绩,但真正雅思达到8分水平及以上、托福达到110分及以上分数的人数极少,甚至一些刚刚从兼职转正的老师自己的实际托福水平也只有80多分,很难想象如何教学生。 同时,作为基础课教师的他们有的有基本工资,有的并无基本工资,全靠课时费,而50元到60元 小时不等的课时费远低于正式教师,一个月平均工资仅维持在3000元左右。 不算新鲜的“新鲜事” “被学生问倒”成常事 “据我了解,我们每个老师几乎都有回答不上来学生所提问题的经历。”小倪告诉记者,虽然是基础课,但是涉及面非常广,需要大量备课,如果自己英语水平不是特别高,没准备到的地方被学生问倒并不意外。“我以前同时带两个班的阅读基础课,自己觉得备课已经很充分了,但有一个班学生水平相对高些,直接问我一个延伸问题,一下就不知道怎么回答了。”小倪说,其实就是自己的英语水平不到位,毕竟自己也只是考过试而已,也没有深入钻研过这些课程。 抢市场培训机构扩招 缺师资培训质量难保 无论是教师呈现“三低”趋势,还是出现“被学生问倒”的情况,说到底是行业鱼龙混杂、优质教师资源匮乏所致,那么产生这个问题的深层次原因又是什么呢?业内人士徐老师给出了这样的分析。 首先是前期行业准入门槛较低,监管不到位,后期各家为抢占市场,攫取利益,更是一味招人扩张、肆意招生,培训质量难以保证。同时,也正是因为行业较为混乱,师资流失严重,最后的结果就是人才留不住,留住的都难成大器,长此以往,便形成恶性循环。 [揭秘]留学培训到底有哪些成本? 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